Manifestation and Forecast of Global Climate Change in Azerbaijan

In the modern era, climate change is considered one of the most serious ecological challenges on a global scale. This problem is even more relevant for Azerbaijan, a country highly dependent on energy resources and with an arid climate. Analysis of long-term meteorological observations shows that a continuous increase in the average annual temperature, a key climate indicator, is being recorded in Azerbaijan. Compared with the period from 1961 to 1990, the average annual temperature has increased by approximately 1.1–1.4°C in recent periods. The acceleration of this increase after the 2000s demonstrates the real regional impact of global warming processes occurring in the climate system. Statistical analyses show that from 1950–2025, the rate of increase in average annual temperature in Azerbaijan was approximately +0.2°C per decade. In recent decades, however, this figure has risen even more in some local regions (for example, in the Central Aran zones), reaching +0.3–0.35°C/10 years. Long-term observations (1950–2025) also confirm a significant imbalance in both the total amount of precipitation and its seasonal distribution. A nationwide decrease in the average annual precipitation of approximately 5% to 12% is observed. Projection matrices show that by 2050, the probability of an increase in average annual temperature in Azerbaijan in the range of a minimum of 1.5°C to a maximum of 2.5°C is very high. Against a backdrop of rising temperatures, a decrease in annual precipitation of 2% to 10%, a sharp intensification of moisture deficit to 15-20%, especially during the growing season (spring and summer months), and a 20-30% reduction in mountain snow reserves is predicted.