Temperature Trends and Ecosystem Resilience in Iran: A Climate-Based Framework for Sustainable Management

This study applies the Mann–Kendall trend test to evaluate long-term changes in annual maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures across Iran from 1980 to 2017. Results reveal a consistent upward trend in all temperature parameters nationwide, with spatial variability linked to geographic and topographic factors. Stations in southern regions, such as Bandar-Abbas and Ahvaz, exhibited the lowest positive trends, whereas Kermanshah and Tabriz located in the northeastern mountainous zones, recorded the highest increases in maximum temperature, approximately 2.7 °C and 2.5 °C, respectively. Interestingly, these high-altitude stations showed the smallest rise in minimum temperatures, contrasting with cities like Mashhad, Ahvaz, and Tehran, where minimum temperatures increased more rapidly than maximum values. Among all stations, Mashhad demonstrated the most pronounced warming across all temperature metrics. From a sustainability standpoint, these findings underscore the urgency of region-specific climate adaptation strategies. The accelerated warming in urban and high-latitude areas may intensify energy demands, disrupt agricultural cycles, and strain water resources, particularly in already vulnerable ecosystems.